A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
